Regime shifts under forcing of non-stationary attractors: Conceptual model and case studies in hydrologic systems.

摘要: We present here a conceptual model and analysis of complex systems using hypothetical cases regime shifts resulting from temporal non-stationarity in attractor strengths, then selected published to illustrate such hydrologic (shallow aquatic ecosystems; water table shifts; soil salinization). Complex are dynamic can exist two or more stable states (or regimes). Temporal variations state variables occur response fluctuations external forcing, which modulated by interactions among internal processes. Combined effects forcing non-stationary strengths alternative attractors lead original alternate regimes. In with bi-stable states, when the competing constant time, but change linear fashion, found be temporally stationary only controlled characteristics forcing. However, time non-linearly vary stochastically, characterized probability density functions (pdfs). briefly discuss implications challenges prediction management systems.