Vaccination and the evolution of seasonal influenza

摘要: Although vaccines against seasonal influenza are designed to protect currently circulating strains, they may also affect the emergence of antigenically divergent strains and thereby change rate antigenic evolution. Such evolutionary effects could benefits that confer vaccinated individuals host population (i.e. private social benefits). To investigate vaccinations potential impacts, we simulated dynamics an influenza-like pathogen in annually population. On average, vaccination decreased cumulative amount evolution viral incidence disease. Vaccination at a 5% random annual (48% vaccine coverage after 20 years) by 56% 76%. understand how might its over multiple seasons, fit linear panel models infection histories. Including lowered 14% but increased 30% (at rate) compared when were ignored. Thus, long term, vaccines' be lower greater than predicted current measurements impact, which do not capture long-term effects. These results suggest conventional greatly reduce burden disease slowing like universal vaccines. Furthermore, vaccination's compound collective action problem, highlighting importance on policies concerning vaccination.