Modeling fall migration pathways and spatially identifying potential migratory hazards for the eastern monarch butterfly

摘要: Identifying core migratory pathways and associated threats is important for developing conservation priorities declining species, such as eastern monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus L.). Characterization of fall migration annual variability was compared using kernel density estimation models (KDEMs) MaxEnt ecological niche models. Potential anthropogenic hazards were identified across related to strategies. Journey North citizen scientist overnight roost data from 2002 2016 used model the at 10 km spatial resolution with KDEMs. spatially along routes. The KDEM best represented patterns movement towards overwintering locations. Migratory routes varied much 200 km east west in southern Central Flyway, which also only area roadkill hotspots. mosquito adulticide ultra-low volume (ULV) spraying concentrated Eastern Flyway coastal areas. nectar resource loss or contamination high usage glyphosate herbicide neonicotinoid insecticides greatest Midwest, within route Flyway. complementary modeling pathways. Monarch mitigation strategies are most needed through Texas Mexico. High quality resource enhancement could help mitigate potential ULV areas respectively.