Do protection gradients explain patterns in herbivore densities? An example with ungulates in Zambia’s Luangwa Valley

摘要: Ungulate populations face declines across the globe, and are commonly conserved by using protected areas. However, assessing effectiveness of areas in conserving ungulate has remained difficult. Using herd size data from four years line transect surveys distance sampling models, we modeled population densities important herbivore species a gradient protection on edge Zambia’s South Luangwa National Park (SLNP) while accounting for role various ecological anthropogenic variables. Our goal was to test whether responsible density dynamics this gradient, hunting moratorium impacted during studies. For all species, estimated lower partially buffer adjacent SLNP (ranging 4.5-fold 13.2-fold lower) compared parklands. Density trends through study period were species-specific, with some increasing, decreasing, or remaining stable regions gradient. Surprisingly, when controlling other covariates, found that these observed differences not always detectably related level year. findings highlight importance variables beyond strata interest evaluating area. This highlights comprehensively modeling gradients, identifies lands within an targeted conservation monitoring, documents prey depletion expands our understanding drivers critical area Zambia.