Development and validation of a SEER-based prognostic nomogram for patients with bone metastatic prostate cancer

摘要: Controversies exist between the previous two prognostic nomograms for patients with bone metastatic prostate cancer (PCa), and a nomogram applied to western has yet be established. Thus, we aimed build reliable generic individualize prognosis. The independent factors were identified in retrospective study of 1556 PCa registered Surveillance, Epidemiology End Results (SEER) database. Besides, was developed using R software according result multivariable Cox regression analysis. Then, discriminative ability assessed by analyses receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC curves). We also performed 1-, 2-, 3-year calibrations comparing predicted survival observed survival. Furthermore, model externally validated data 711 diagnosed at different times enrolled SEER database. Age ≥70 years, Gleason score ≥8, PSA value 201 900 ng/ml, stage T4, N1, liver metastases, Asian/Pacific ethnicity as factors. In primary cohort, area under ROC curve (AUC) predicting cancer-specific (CSS) 0.71, 0.70, respectively. Besides AUC 0.68, 0.69, respectively, external validation cohort. Moreover, calibration presented perfect agreements nomogram-predicted actual CSS rate both cohorts. other words, our great predictive accuracy reliability cancer. This established not only Asian but PCa, which will useful patients’ counseling clinical trial designing.