Long-term trends and causal factors associated with Microcystis abundance and toxicity in San Francisco Estuary and implications for climate change impacts

摘要: The impacts of climate change on Micro- cystis blooms in San Francisco Estuary are uncertain because factors associated with the abundance and distribution Microcystis since their incep- tion 1999 poorly understood. Discrete continuous data collected between 2004 2008 were used to assess what controlled bloom initiation persistence, if there was an impact mesozooplankton toxicity or dissolved organic carbon concentration, how these might vary change. abun- dance greater dry years than wet both total microcystins concentration content tissue increased abundance. began upstream portions estuary spread farther west during years. Bloom required water temperature above 19C surface irradiance visible range 100 W m -2 . persisted a wide quality conditions but closely correlated low turbidity. intensity will likely increase due streamflow droughts. Elevated earlier spring could also extend duration by up 3 months.