Participatory scenario planning for developing innovation in community adaptation responses: three contrasting examples from Latin America

摘要: Environmental change requires adaptive responses that are innovative, forward-looking and anticipatory, in order to meet goals for sustainability socio-ecological systems. This implies transformative shifts understanding as conceptualised by the idea of ‘double’- or ‘triple-loop learning’. Achieving this can be difficult communities often rely on shorter-term coping mechanisms purport maintain status quo. The use participatory scenario planning stimulate social learning adaptation was investigated through three contrasting community case studies natural resource management Latin America (in Mexico, Argentina Colombia). Exploratory narratives synthesised local knowledge future perceptions were used iteratively define response options considered robust across multiple futures. Despite its intensive format, participants each agreed enabled a more systematic appraisal future. Scenarios facilitated innovation providing scope propose new types associated actions. Differences context meant about developed diverse ways, showing need reflexive process. Reframing key issues characteristic double-loop did occur, albeit different forms interaction location. However, shift towards actions triple-loop less evident. would appear require ongoing scenarios challenge norms light changing drivers. Use loops diagnostic evaluate provided useful reference framework although practice both consolidative approaches develop concurrently issues.