Identifying robust response options to manage environmental change using an Ecosystem Approach: A stress-testing case study for the UK

摘要: A diverse range of response options was evaluated in terms their utility for sustaining ecosystem services the UK. Robustness investigated by applying a ‘stress-testing’ method which expected performance against combined scenarios socioeconomic and climate change. Based upon stakeholder feedback, reference scenario representing current trends drivers (‘business-as-usual’) used as dynamic baseline to compare results other scenarios. The robustness different environmental social contexts represented scenarios, linked adaptability adjust changing conditions. Key findings demonstrate that becomes increasingly valuable magnitude rate future change diverges from trends. Stress-testing also revealed individual responses isolation are unlikely be robust meaning there advantages integrating cohesive combinations (bundles) maximise strengths compensate weaknesses. This identifies role both top-down bottom-up responses, including regulation, spatial targeting, incentives partnership initiatives, use combination through integrated assessment planning consistent with adoption an Ecosystem Approach. approaches can have important future-proofing policy appraisals but knowledge gaps remain, especially cultural supporting services. Finally, barriers enablers implementation more long-term adaptive were identified drawing on ‘4 Is’ (Institutions, Information, Incentives, Identity) conceptual framework. highlighted crucial usually understated identity promoting ownership uptake responses.