Evaluating the assumptions of population projection models used for conservation

摘要: Abstract Population projection models, such as matrix and integral are used increasingly to understand potential effects of anthropogenic stressors inform conservation actions. However, vital rate life history information needed create robust population models is often missing or incomplete, making assumptions about parameters processes necessary. Understanding how affect results critical, particularly if the study will be guide policy management I review published amphibian determine whether model output evaluated with data, what made, sensitivity analyses performed. found that only 21% were most (67%) explored analyses. then simulated four varying carrying capacities on using existing from three species different histories: Anaxyrus boreas, Lithobates sylvaticus, Ambystoma maculatum. Simulations showed changes in under depended more examined than assumption implemented. There which was sensitive all for species, suggesting caution when there great uncertainty assumptions. Models their parameterization should regularly updated new ensure biologists outcomes threats