Ecological and anthropogenic drivers of large carnivore depredation on sheep in Europe

摘要: Sharing space with large carnivores on a human-dominated continent like Europe results in multiple conflictful interactions human interests, of which depredation livestock is the most widespread. Wildlife management agencies maintain compensation programs for damage caused by carnivores, but long-term effectiveness such often contested. Therefore, understanding mechanisms driving carnivore impact activities necessary to identify key actions reduce it. We conducted an analysis all four European sheep husbandry 10 countries, during period 2010-2015. ran hierarchical Simultaneous Autoregressive model, assess influence ecological and anthropogenic factors spatial temporal patterns reported levels across continent. On average, about 35,000 were compensated ten countries as killed annually, representing 0.5% total stock. Of them, 45% recognized wolves, 24% wolverines, 19% lynx 12% bears. At continental level, we found positive relationship between wolf distribution number sheep, not other three species. Impact lower areas where presence has been continuous compared they disappeared recently returned. The model explained 62% variation per year each administrative unit. Only 13% was related components process. Synthesis Applications: Large local abundance alone are poor predictors at level. A few individuals can produce high damage, when contribution environmental, social economic systems predisposes it, whereas populations limited same system probability that depredations occur. Time seems play favour progressive reduction costs associated coexistence, provided responsible focus their attention both co-adaptation.