The impact and spin-off of participatory backcasting: From vision to niche

摘要: Abstract This paper reports on a study that has systematically investigated the follow-up and spin-off of participatory backcasting experiments in Netherlands five to ten years after completion. A methodological framework for is presented, which conceptual developed describe evaluate impact experiments. Three cases are analysed: (1) Novel Protein Foods meat alternatives; (2) Sustainable Household Nutrition; (3) Multiple Land-use rural areas. The show can lead substantial spin-off, but not always case. Substantial predominantly found at level niches, be seen as potential seeds future system innovations. emergence comes along with diffusion visions generated experiment. provide orientation (where go) guidance (what do). Visions also both stability flexibility. Factors influence extent identified, focus stakeholders, learning visions. Finally, relevance innovation theory, governance policy well research recommendations briefly discussed.