Vulnerability of field crops to midcentury temperature changes and yield effects in the Southwestern USA.

摘要: Increased temperatures in the Southwestern USA will impact future crop production via multiple pathways. We used four methods to provide an illustrative analysis of midcentury temperature impacts eight field crops. By midcentury, cropland area thermally suitable for maize cultivation is projected decrease, while cotton expands northward and nearly doubles extent. The increase exposed daily > 35 °C was highest oat maize. Estimates yield reduction from heat stress both indicate that historically, SW reduced by 26% 18% compared potential yield. we predict reduce yields 37 27%, respectively, Our results contradict notion warmest counties cultivating crops be most impacted. Rather, temperature, total sensitivity contribute more complex county-level impacts. Identification representative target environments under regimes can inform development farm-based networks evaluate new germplasm with increased tolerance viable adaptation management strategies respond effectively temperatures.