Separating out the influence of climatic trend, fluctuations, and extreme events on crop yield: a case study in Hunan Province, China

摘要: Separating out the influence of climatic trend, fluctuations and extreme events on crop yield is paramount importance to climate change adaptation, resilience, mitigation. Previous studies lack systematic explicit assessment these three fundamental aspects yield. This research attempts separate impacts rice yields trend (linear related mean value), (variability surpassing “fluctuation threshold” which defined as one standard deviation (1 SD) residual between original data series linear value for each variable), (identified by absolute criterion kind yield). The main idea method was construct scenarios combined with system simulation model. Comparable were designed express impact component and, input model (CERES-Rice), calculated simulated gap quantify percentage fluctuations, events. Six Agro-Meteorological Stations (AMS) in Hunan province selected study quantitatively involving variables (air temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration) early during 1981–2012. results showed that found have greatest (−2.59 −15.89%). Followed a range −2.60 −4.46%, then (4.91–2.12%). Furthermore, presented “trade-offs” among various AMS. Climatic associated air temperature larger effects than other variables, particularly high-temperature (−2.11 −12.99%). Finally, methodology use influences proved be feasible robust. Designing different feeding them into potential way evaluate quantitative variable.