Using foresight for smart policy actions: the case of Russian energy exports
作者： Alexander Chulok , Svetlana N. Slobodianik , Evgeny Moiseichev
关键词:
摘要: Purpose This study aims to assess future prospects for Russian energy exports until 2040, as global markets are undergoing major changes, with possible impacts on Russia. Design/methodology/approach Qualitative and quantitative approaches integrated under a proposed foresight framework. The qualitative method involves an expert survey aimed at identifying trends their influence Russia. As the validated, algorithm is contribution of separate exports. Findings Experimental scenarios conducted 2040 given exogenous scenario calculations IEA. Factor analysis allows assessment factors in dynamics net imports into regional economies. fossil fuels’ considered. Priority exporters identified. Practical implications The results paper may be used by decision-makers adjustments system government policy or corporate strategy. Originality/value The provides export flows macroregions based upon synthesis information. Experimental provided. Strategic decision-making map elaborated.
hse.ru
sci-hub.se 参考文章(19)
I Kraft, A Kraft, ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENERGY AND GNP ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT. ,vol. 3, pp. 401- 403 ,(1978)
Liliana Proskuryakova, Sergey Filippov, Energy Technology Foresight 2030 in Russia: An Outlook for Safer and More Efficient Energy Future Energy Procedia. ,vol. 75, pp. 2798- 2806 ,(2015) , 10.1016/J.EGYPRO.2015.07.550
Rafael Popper, How are foresight methods selected Foresight. ,vol. 10, pp. 62- 89 ,(2008) , 10.1108/14636680810918586
Armin Grunwald, Energy futures: Diversity and the need for assessment Futures. ,vol. 43, pp. 820- 830 ,(2011) , 10.1016/J.FUTURES.2011.05.024
Karel Haegeman, Elisabetta Marinelli, Fabiana Scapolo, Andrea Ricci, Alexander Sokolov, Quantitative and qualitative approaches in Future-oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): From combination to integration? Technological Forecasting and Social Change. ,vol. 80, pp. 386- 397 ,(2013) , 10.1016/J.TECHFORE.2012.10.002
R. A. Herendeen, Energy cost of goods and services ,(1973) , 10.2172/4432615
Axel Dreher, Silvia Marchesi, James Raymond Vreeland, The political economy of IMF forecasts Public Choice. ,vol. 137, pp. 145- 171 ,(2008) , 10.1007/S11127-008-9318-6
Ilhan Ozturk, A literature survey on energy–growth nexus Energy Policy. ,vol. 38, pp. 340- 349 ,(2010) , 10.1016/J.ENPOL.2009.09.024
Peter Bishop, Andy Hines, Terry Collins, The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques Foresight. ,vol. 9, pp. 5- 25 ,(2007) , 10.1108/14636680710727516
Vito Albino, Erik Dietzenbacher, Silvana Kühtz, Analyzing materials and energy flows in an industrial district using an enterprise input-output model Economic Systems Research. ,vol. 15, pp. 457- 480 ,(2003) , 10.1080/0953531032000152326