Three-dimensional numerical modeling of land subsidence in Shanghai, China

摘要: Shanghai, in China, has experienced two periods of rapid land subsidence mainly caused by groundwater exploitation related to economic and population growth. The first period occurred during 1956–1965 was characterized an average rate 83 mm/yr, the second 1990–1998 with 16 mm/yr. Owing establishment monitoring networks for levels subsidence, a valuable dataset been collected since 1960s used develop regional models applied manage resources mitigate subsidence. previous geomechanical modeling approaches simulate were based on one-dimensional (1D) vertical stress deformation. In this study, numerical model is developed explicitly coupled three-dimensional (3D) flow 3D aquifer-system displacements downtown Shanghai from 30 December 1979 1995. calibrated using piezometric, geodetic-leveling, borehole extensometer measurements made 16-year simulation period. satisfactorily reproduces measured piezometric deformation observations. For time, capability exists provide some preliminary estimations horizontal displacement field associated well-known which no are available. simulated peak at 11 mm, i.e. less than 10 % maximum seems too small seriously damage infrastructure such as subways (metro lines) center area Shanghai.