Economic analysis of adaptive strategies for flood risk management under climate change

摘要: Climate change requires reconsideration of flood risk management strategies. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA), an economic decision-support tool, has been widely applied to assess these This paper aims describe and discuss probabilistic extensions CBA identify welfare-maximising strategies under climate change. First, uncertainty about the changes in return periods hydro-meteorological extremes is introduced by probability-weighted scenarios. Second, extended learning impacts. Learning occurs upon arrival information. We distinguish between from scientific progress, statistical evidence disasters. These can be used analyse compare efficiency flexibility offer a critical discussion scope such options for increasing flexibility. find that reduction progress may reduce initial investments, while other types increase investments. analysing effects different learning. also information impacts imprecise. conclude risk-based with improves However, provides subjective estimates expected outcomes reflects decision-maker preferences than those captured robustness analyses. therefore advocate addition to, or combined with, cost-benefit support local investment decisions on global allocation adaptation funds management.