Opportunities to improve quantitative risk assessment

摘要: Abstract Quantitative risk assessment should help managers evaluate a broad spectrum of management alternatives by meaningfully quantifying their costs and benefits. However, current assessments are primarily based on single quantitative analysis using default assumptions simplistic bounding procedures that were originally intended only as screening not designed to identify the real magnitudes There significant opportunities improve methods through less reliance assumptions, greater use available data expert judgement, increased probabilistic techniques including distributions trees, more informative exposure characterizations, biologically‐based dose metrics, mechanistically‐based dose‐response models, reflecting biological feedback systems, incorporating interspecies differences in background transition rates from stage multistage processes, incl...