Temporal Variations and Associated Remotely Sensed Environmental Variables of Dengue Fever in Chitwan District, Nepal

摘要: Dengue fever is one of the leading public health problems tropical and subtropical countries across world. Transmission dynamics dengue largely affected by meteorological environmental factors, its temporal pattern generally peaks in hot-wet periods year. Despite this continuously growing problem, associated potential risk factors are not documented Nepal. The aim study was to fill research gap utilizing epidemiological earth observation data Chitwan district, frequent outbreak areas We used laboratory confirmed monthly cases as a dependent variable set remotely sensed variables explanatory describe their relationship. Descriptive statistics, cross correlation analysis, Poisson generalized additive model were for purpose. Results revealed that significantly with satellite estimated precipitation, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), enhanced (EVI) synchronously different lag periods. However, associations weak insignificant immediate daytime land surface temperature (dLST) nighttime (nLST), but significant after 4–5 months. Conclusively, selected based on dLST, NDVI explained largest variation distribution minimum Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) maximum R-squared. best fit further improved including delayed effects model. predicted reasonably accurate comparison 10-fold validation observed cases. lagged association found could be useful development remote sensing-based early warning forecasts fever.