Global development and the future of the protected area strategy

摘要: Abstract Land protection has become increasingly common, and global land is now greater than 12%. Prediction of future protected area expansion are uncertain, depend on understanding the factors that have to date explained historical pattern geographic variation in (PA) establishment. We test four major perspectives limiting or facilitating PA creation, differentiating between strict PAs multiple-use where some resource extraction permitted. Richer countries had a amount were more likely create PAs, supporting view as an economic amenity, although magnitude this effect declines recent decades. There also significant differences by political structure, with independent tending protect land, education, high levels primary education more. However, substantial previous tend do less proportionally fewer PAs. Scenarios socioeconomic conditions suggest balance should increase many countries, driven prosperity, 2030 forecast reach 15–29%. The factor varies among sub-Saharan African particular will remain very hard place for because low per-capita GDP. Overall, however, may occur next 20 years occurred 20 years.