Cognitive Illusions, Heuristics, and Climate Prediction

摘要: A number of studies in meteorological journals have documented some the constraints to effective use climate forecasts. One major constraint, considerable difficulty people estimating and dealing with probabilities, risk, uncertainty, has received relatively little attention field. Some this arises from problems known as cognitive illusions or biases. These illusions, ways avoid them impacting on decision making, been studied fields law, medicine, business. The relevance these prediction is discussed here. optimal predictions requires providers forecasts understand difficulties make adjustments for way are prepared disseminated.