On the relative role of different age groups in influenza epidemics

摘要: The identification of key "driver" groups in influenza epidemics is much interest for the implementation effective public health response strategies, including vaccination programs. However, relative importance different age propagating uncertain. During a communicable disease outbreak, some may be disproportionately represented during outbreak's ascent due to increased susceptibility and/or contact rates. Such or subpopulations can identified by considering proportion cases within subpopulation occurring before (Bp) and after epidemic peak (Ap) calculate subpopulation's risk, RR=Bp/Ap. We estimated RR several (age groups) using data on laboratory-confirmed US hospitalizations between 2009-2014. Additionally, we simulated various outbreaks an age-stratified population, relating impact each epidemic's initial reproductive number R_e(0). found that children aged 5-17 had highest estimates five largest A outbreaks, though magnitude this group compared other varied, being 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. For 2010-2011 2012-2013 B epidemics, adults 18-49, 0-4 year-olds respectively. 83% with was also which distribution given quantity vaccine would result reduction In 40% 5-17. While varies, play leading role epidemics. Extra efforts contribute reducing whole community.