Different transmission patterns in the early stages of the influenza A(H1N1)v pandemic: a comparative analysis of 12 European countries.

摘要: Following the emergence of a novel strain influenza A(H1N1) in Mexico and United States April 2009, its epidemiology Europe during summer was limited to sporadic localised outbreaks. Only Kingdom experienced widespread transmission declining with school holidays late July. Using statistical modelling where applicable we explored following causes that could explain this surprising difference dynamics: extinction by chance, differences susceptibility profile, age distribution imported cases, contact patterns, mitigation strategies, weather patterns. No single factor able sufficiently. Hence an additive mixed model used country-specific weekly estimates effective reproductive number using probability, patterns as explanatory variables. The average trend absolute humidity were found be significantly negatively correlated reproduction - although they only about 3% variability model. By comparing initial A (H1N1) across different European countries, our analysis uncover possible role for timing importations (extinction probability), mixing underlying factors. However, much uncertainty remains. With better information on these epidemiological factors, control improved.