Modeling Future Life-Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Environmental Impacts of Electricity Supplies in Brazil

摘要: Brazil’s status as a rapidly developing country is visible in its need for more energy, including electricity. While the current electricity generation mix primarily hydropower based, high-quality dam sites are diminishing and diversification to other sources likely. We combined life-cycle data production with scenarios developed using IAEA’s MESSAGE model examine environmental impacts of future under baseline case four side cases, Monte-Carlo approach incorporate uncertainty power plant performance LCA impacts. Our results show that, cost-optimal base scenario, GHGs from (excluding hydroelectric reservoir emissions) rise 370% by 2040 relative 2010, carbon intensity per MWh rising 100%. This would make emissions targets difficult meet without demand-side programs. dominated tradeoffs use large-scale renewables, questioning tropical highlighting additional work assess include ecosystem social impacts, where information currently sparse.