When is the sun going to shine for the Brazilian energy sector? A story of how modelling affects solar electricity

摘要: Abstract The energy sector has a vital role in climate change mitigation. In Brazil, the electricity generation is strongly dependent on hydropower generation, but thermoelectricity contribution increased leading to more carbon-intensive mix. This trend will be aggravated with expected significant increase demand until 2050 and potential limitation of expansion due environmental constraints. extent solar power overcome these challenges future been hidden by modelling assumptions. A review how considered different models, was performed. research further assessed relevance assumptions developing an optimization model explore cost-effectiveness large-scale deployment up 2050. work found that most published assessments based long-term for Brazil currently are not updated regarding several assumptions, models results where appears marginal role. modeling exercise shows PV cost-effective providing than 36% total conclusion from exercises conducted now, underestimated.