Climate Policy Scenarios in Brazil: a Multi-Model Comparison for Energy

摘要: Abstract This paper assesses the effects of market-based mechanisms and carbon emission restrictions on Brazilian energy system by comparing results six different energy-economic or integrated assessment models under scenarios for taxes abatement targets up to 2050. Results show an increase over time in emissions baseline due, largely, higher penetration natural gas coal. Climate policy scenarios, however, indicate that such a pathway can be avoided. While 32 US$/tCO2e do not significantly reduce emissions, (from 50 US$/tCO2e 2020 16 2US$/tCO2e 2050) induce average reductions around 60% when compared baseline. Emission constraint yield even lower most models. are mostly due consumption, increased renewable (especially biomass wind) capture storage technologies fossil and/or fuels. also provides discussion specific issues related mitigation alternatives Brazil. The range options resulting from model runs generally falls within limits found sources country, although infrastructure investments technology improvements needed projected achieve actual feasibility.