Quasicycles revisited: apparent sensitivity to initial conditions.

摘要: Abstract Environmental noise is known to sustain cycles by perturbing a deterministic approach equilibrium that itself oscillatory. Quasicycles produced in this way display regular period but varied amplitude. They were proposed Nisbet and Gurney (Nature 263 (1976) 319) as one possible explanation for population fluctuations nature. Here, we revisit quasicyclic dynamics from the perspective of nonlinear time series analysis. Time are generated with predator–prey model whose prey's growth rate driven environmental noise. A method analysis short noisy data provides evidence sensitivity initial conditions, global Lyapunov exponent often close zero characteristic populations ‘at edge chaos’. Results methods restricted long consistent finite-dimensional attractor on which sensitive conditions. These results compared those previously obtained quasicycles an individual-based heterogeneous spatial distributions. Patterns conditions shown differentiate phase-forgetting phase-remembering involving periodic driver. The reported mode at exponents field laboratory may reflect, part, dynamics.