The probability of extinction in a bovine respiratory syncytial virus epidemic model

摘要: Backward bifurcation is a relatively recent yet well-studied phenomenon associated with deterministic epidemic models. It allows for the presence of multiple subcritical endemic equilibria, and generally found only in models possessing reasonable degree complexity. One particular aspect backward that appears to have been virtually overlooked literature potential influence its might on behaviour any analogous stochastic model. Indeed, primary aim this paper investigate possibility. Our approach compare theoretical probabilities extinction, calculated via formulation model exhibiting bifurcation, those obtained from series simulations. We some interesting links between models, are able offer plausible explanations our observations.