Morphological variation in salamanders and their potential response to climate change

摘要: Despite the recognition that some species might quickly adapt to new conditions under climate change, demonstrating and predicting such a fundamental response is challenging. Morphological variations in may be caused by evolutionary changes or phenotypic plasticity, both, but teasing apart these processes difficult. Here, we built on number of thoracic vertebrae (NTV) ectothermic vertebrates, known genetically based feature, establish link with body size evaluate how change affect future morphological this group species. First, show old-world salamanders, NTV variation strongly related size. Secondly, using 22 salamander as case study, found support for relationships between spatial selected bioclimatic variables most For 44% species, precipitation aridity were predominant drivers geographical NTV. Temperature features dominant 31% while 19% temperature played comparable role. This two-step analysis demonstrates vertebrates evolve modifying vertebrae. These findings allow develop scenarios potential evolution identify areas which marked responses are expected. Resistance estimated from distribution models was positively present-day response, suggesting ability play role species' persistence change. The possibility capacity local adaptation help resistance can integrated into analyses impact global should also considered when planning management actions favouring persistence.