The Quantitative Incidence Function Model and Persistence of an Endangered Butterfly Metapopulation

摘要: The incidence function model is derived from a linear first-order Markov chain of the presence or absence species in habitat patch. can be parameterized with “snapshot” presence/absence data patch network. Using estimated parameter values iterated same some other network to generate quantitative predictions about transient metapopulation dynamics and stochastic steady state. We tested ability predict occupancy using extensive on an endangered butterfly, Glanville fritillary (Melitaea cinxia) Parameter were collected 50-patch 1991. In 1993 we surveyed entire geographic range Finland, within area 50 × 70 km2, 1502 patches (dry meadows) which 536 occupied. Model generated for compared observed pattern 1993. predicted well more than half study area, but prediction was poor one quarter probably because regional variation quality metapopulations may have been perturbed away provides practical tool making living fragmented landscapes.