State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes

摘要: Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, well such capture impacts extreme conditions. Using 2003 European heat wave drought as a historical analogue comparable events future, find that majority underestimate extremeness sectors agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, heat-related mortality, while on water resources hydropower overestimated some river basins; spread is often large. This has implications economic change rely these models. It also means societal risks from future greater than previously thought.