From explanation to prediction: A model for recurrent bovine tuberculosis in Irish cattle herds

摘要: There is a good understanding of factors associated with bovine tuberculosis (BTB) risk in Irish herds. As yet, however, this knowledge has not been incorporated into predictive models the potential for improved, risk-based surveillance. The goal study was to enhance national herd scoring system BTB risk, thus leading improved identification cattle herds at high recurrent episodes. A retrospective cohort conducted develop statistical model episodes Republic Ireland. Herd-level disease history data previous 12 years, 3 episode, and current-episode were used survival analyses determine aspects that breakdown within years cleared episode. Relative 0-1 standard reactors current hazard ratios increased 1.3 1.6 2-5 >5 reactors, respectively. Compared 174 animals 5 tests had 1.1 1.4 times greater breakdown. Herds did have episode prior their 2001 0.8 less likely next than did. breaking down spring or summer suffer autumn winter (this due seasonality testing regimes). presence confirmed lesion BTB. Despite availability detailed history, ability poor. One explanation suffering recurrence on first test after clearing different from broke later period risk. Future research might need include additional variables identify which subsets episodes, if any, identifiable features are breakdowns.