Are different facets of plant diversity well protected against climate and land cover changes? A test study in the French Alps.

摘要: Climate and land cover changes are important drivers of the plant species distributions diversity patterns in mountainous regions. Although need for a multifaceted view based on taxonomic, functional phylogenetic dimensions is now commonly recognized, there no complete risk assessments concerning their expected changes. In this paper, we used range distribution models an ensemble-forecasting framework together with regional climate projections by 2080 to analyze potential threat more than 2,500 at high resolution (2.5 km × 2.5 km) French Alps. We also decomposed facets into α β components analyzed 2080. Overall, threats from Alps were vary depending species' preferred altitudinal vegetation zone, rarity, conservation status. Indeed, rare concern ones projected experience less severe change, being most efficiently preserved current network protected areas. Conversely, three drastic spatial re-shuffling general, mean α-diversity was increase detriment β-diversity, although latter remain montane-alpine transition zones. Our results show that, due high-altitude distribution, protection efficient species, predicted migrate upward. our modeling may not capture all possible mechanisms shifts, work illustrates that comprehensive assessment entire floristic region combined information can help delimitate future scenarios biodiversity better design its protection.