VEHICLE OWNERSHIP AND TRIP GENERATION MODELLING: A Case Study of Thailand

作者: Pattarathep SILLAPARCHARN

DOI: 10.1016/S0386-1112(14)60218-1

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摘要: This paper aims to address some important issues of a rapid growth in vehicle ownership, how different types vehicles interact and these growths affect number trip generations, especially country undergoing fast economic development, such as Thailand. The forecasts are for strategic transport decision-making, travel demand other policy at both regional national levels. For reasons, series ownership models, which include: (1) car, (2) motorcycle, (3) truck heavy goods (4) bus coach proposed together with generation model. These models built upon the limited aggregate data, time cross sectional disaggregated spatially by province, using non-log-linear weighted least squares regression motor exponential modelling inputs required basically forecasted gross provincial products per capita population level. All have good statistical properties, i.e. all statistically significant coefficients high adjusted R squared value very fits within 12% observed values during base years. car model also gives reasonable elasticities respect income sensible saturation level when compared studies. forecast case increasing shows that will increase However, people own more cars, motorcycle levels decrease there might be switch ownership.

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