A public opinion survey of four future scenarios for Australia in 2050

作者: Ian Chambers , Robert Costanza , Logan Zingus , Steve Cork , Marcello Hernandez

DOI: 10.1016/J.FUTURES.2018.12.002

关键词:

摘要: Abstract Scenario planning and the use of alternative futures have been used successfully to assist organisations, communities countries move towards desired outcomes ( Dator, 2009 ). In this study we a unique combination scenario national public opinion survey explore preferred for Australia in 2050. The approach four future scenarios 2050 as basis an online entitled Australia: Our Future, Your Voice. development was based on review broad range globally. We then developed synthesis two axes individual versus community orientation, focus GDP growth well-being more broadly defined. were labelled: (1) Free Enterprise (FE); (2) Strong Individualism (SI); (3) Coordinated Action (CA); (4) Community Well-being (CW). created website that described each these invited people complete after they had reviewed scenarios. engaged 2575 adults groups: targeted statistically representative sample (n = 2083) self-selected (n = 492). Results from both groups across all demographic categories revealed majority participants (CW) scenario. 73% (Representative) 61% (Self Select) ranked 1st or 2nd. also asked which headed toward. 32% Representative 50% Self-Selected (FE) most likely future. CW least be ‘where is heading?’ dissonance between Australians want where thought country has clear policy implications, discuss. This extension include surveys novel can improve thinking, discussion, about Australia, well potentially other regions.

参考文章(17)
Rafael Ramirez, Malobi Mukherjee, Simona Vezzoli, Arnoldo Matus Kramer, Scenarios as a scholarly methodology to produce “interesting research” Futures. ,vol. 71, pp. 70- 87 ,(2015) , 10.1016/J.FUTURES.2015.06.006
Peter Schwartz, The art of the long view ,(1991)
R. Costanza, A theory of socio-ecological system change Journal of Bioeconomics. ,vol. 16, pp. 39- 44 ,(2014) , 10.1007/S10818-013-9165-5
Ed Diener, Derrick Wirtz, William Tov, Chu Kim-Prieto, Dong-won Choi, Shigehiro Oishi, Robert Biswas-Diener, New Well-being Measures: Short Scales to Assess Flourishing and Positive and Negative Feelings Social Indicators Research. ,vol. 97, pp. 143- 156 ,(2010) , 10.1007/S11205-009-9493-Y
Ron Bradfield, George Wright, George Burt, George Cairns, Kees Van Der Heijden, The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning Futures. ,vol. 37, pp. 795- 812 ,(2005) , 10.1016/J.FUTURES.2005.01.003
H. Igor Ansoff, The emerging paradigm of strategic behavior Strategic Management Journal. ,vol. 8, pp. 501- 515 ,(1987) , 10.1002/SMJ.4250080602
Erin Bohensky, James R.A. Butler, Robert Costanza, Iris Bohnet, Aurélie Delisle, Katharina Fabricius, Margaret Gooch, Ida Kubiszewski, George Lukacs, Petina Pert, Eric Wolanski, Future makers or future takers? A scenario analysis of climate change and the Great Barrier Reef Global Environmental Change-human and Policy Dimensions. ,vol. 21, pp. 876- 893 ,(2011) , 10.1016/J.GLOENVCHA.2011.03.009
Muhammad Amer, Tugrul U. Daim, Antonie Jetter, A review of scenario planning Futures. ,vol. 46, pp. 23- 40 ,(2013) , 10.1016/J.FUTURES.2012.10.003
Frederick M. E. Grouzet, Tim Kasser, Aaron Ahuvia, José Miguel Fernández Dols, Youngmee Kim, Sing Lau, Richard M. Ryan, Shaun Saunders, Peter Schmuck, Kennon M. Sheldon, The Structure of Goal Contents Across 15 Cultures. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. ,vol. 89, pp. 800- 816 ,(2005) , 10.1037/0022-3514.89.5.800