Forecasting and Planning: An Evaluation

摘要: The formal practice of forecasting and planning F&P has risen to prominence within a few decades now receives considerable attention from both academics practitioners. This paper explicitly recognizes the nature as future-oriented decision making activities and, such, their dependence upon judgmental inputs. A review extensive psychological literature on human abilities is provided this perspective. It argued that many numerous information processing limitations biases revealed in apply tasks performed F&P. In particular, "illusion control," accumulation redundant information, failure seek possible disconfirming evidence, overconfidence judgment are liable induce serious errors addition, insufficient been given implications studies show predictive humans frequently less accurate than simple quantitative models. Applied also reviewed shown mirror findings psychology. subsequently draws these reviews suggests reconceptualizing through use decision-theoretic concepts. At organizational level involves recognizing may perform many, often conflicting, manifest latent functions which should be identified evaluated multi-attribute utility framework. Operationally, greater made sensitivity analysis concept value information.