The Exposure Thesis Revisited: Aggregate Seat Change and Individual Vulnerability

摘要: Author(s): Jarvis, Matthew G. | Abstract: There are numerous models predicting the partisan distribution of seats in U.S. House Representatives using national-level variables. The Congress is simply an aggregation 435 separate elections. This paper attempt to formulate measures differential vulnerability elections from individual election results. constructed compared literature. Findings indicate that either not indicative exposure thesis or that, similar literature on sociotropic versus “pocketbook” economic voting, district-level causal mechanism complex and unclear.