Was the 2000 Presidential Election Predictable

摘要: In late August 2000, at APSA's Annual Meeting, a panel of political scientists offered forecasts for the 2000 presidential election. Although they differed in particulars, most forecasters' models incorporated measure economic growth plus president's approval rating. Because economy was prospering and President Clinton enjoyed phenomenal numbers eighth year office, consensus prediction Democratic (Gore) victory by upwards 6 percentage points. had before previous elections, these scientists' predictions attracted more interest than usual. Their drew exceptional both during campaign, when nobody knew sure how election would turn out, after, forecasters to account their mistakes.