A Modified Mathematical Model for HIV Transmission, AIDS and Intervention Strategies in Ireland

摘要: The aim of this project was to modify transmission models previously developed describe HIV in Ireland through more precise estimates parameters delineating sexual and needle sharing behaviour AIDS related mortality, with a view examining the extent spread from IVDUs general heterosexual population. To provide predictions on cases up year 2010 examine sensitivity changes key under different assumptions intervention strategies. Essential data relevance were acquired (through cooperation Department Health, Resource Centre, Drug Treatment Ana Liffey Project, St James’s Hospital, Dublin) analysed. obtained descriptive survival analyses used refined deterministic model which solved numerically. An attempt at solution using perturbation methods undertaken. Results provided plausible range projected new infections 2010. projects that if present continues, approximately 1009 may be expected Dublin by 2000, 1496 Small values induce significant trends, particularly longer term. However all projections point fact that •Non-IVDU women are susceptible infection •Early introduction change makes difference growth epidemic •Expanding System could help significantly reduce HIV •Central collation is essential rational implementation plans achieved