Monte Carlo based sensitivity analysis of two crop simulators and considerations on model balance

摘要: Abstract Sensitivity analysis is crucial for building, understanding and using complex mathematical models agroenvironmental applications. In this study, a variance-based sensitivity was carried out the first time on CropSyst WOFOST, two of crop most diffused worldwide different in their degree mechanism. The scenario assumed simulations refers to paddy rice grown Northern Italy. After screening parameters Morris method, Sobol’ approach used quantifying influence output variability. Seven 34 WOFOST (mostly involved with CO2 assimilation photosynthetates conversion into plant organs) 3 15 (biomass-transpiration coefficient, base temperature light extinction coefficient) were responsible about 90% total Assuming homogeneity among indices as an indicator model balance, Grubbs test outliers detection check if relevance parameter (or few them) significantly higher than others. explored conditions (non-limiting water nutrients availability), resulted unbalanced, being mostly driven by biomass-transpiration whereas no significant differences identified parameters.