Impacts of hydropower and climate change on drivers of ecological productivity of Southeast Asia's most important wetland

摘要: Abstract The Tonle Sap is the largest lake in Southeast Asia and its fishery supports livelihood nutrition of millions people Cambodia. However, hydrological ecological drivers this ecosystem are changing as a result hydropower development on Mekong River global climate change. objective study was to quantify impacts Mekong's future alterations aquatic net primary production (NPP) Sap. A three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamic model used evaluate eleven scenarios change, with respect water flows, suspended sediments, floodplain habitat cover, which were identified key productivity We found that would cause most distinct changes seasonality by reducing wet season levels increasing dry levels. Combined change revealed areas open rainfed/irrigated rice expand 35 ± 3% 16 ± 5%, respectively, while optimal area for gallery forest decrease 40 ± 27%. estimated annual sedimentation projected 56 ± 3% from 3.28 ± 0.93 million tons baseline values. Annual average NPP 1.07 ± 0.06 3.67 ± 0.61 C, reduction 34 ± 4% expected. Our concludes Sap's – sedimentation, will face significant decline ecosystem's services should be expected if mitigation adaptation strategies not implemented.