Simulating population variation and movement within fragmented landscapes: an application to the gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus).

摘要: As the human activity footprint grows, land-use decisions play an increasing role in determining future of plant and animal species. Studies have shown that urban agricultural development cannot only harm species populations directly through habitat destruction, but also by destroying corridors connect patches within a metapopulation. Without these pathways, can encounter inbreeding depression degeneration, which increase death rates lower reproduction. This article describes application FRAGGLE model, spatial system dynamics model designed to calculate connectivity indices among populations. help planners managers identify relative contribution associated with those patches, taking into account importance interstitial land migration success. The is applied gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus), threatened whose southeastern U.S. distribution has diminished significantly its native range due over last several decades. parameterized life history movement traits order simulate population demographics area west-central Georgia supports significant population. implications this simulation modeling effort are demonstrated using simple landscape representations hypothetical on management scenario. Our findings show resulting even limited losses (10%) may lead increases fragmentation as measured loss rate dispersions (31%) subpopulations.