Beyond Rational Decision-Making: Modelling the Influence of Cognitive Biases on the Dynamics of Vaccination Coverage

摘要: Background Theoretical studies predict that it is not possible to eradicate a disease under voluntary vaccination because of the emergence non-vaccinating “free-riders” when coverage increases. A central tenet this approach human behaviour follows an economic model rational choice. Yet, empirical reveal decisions do necessarily maximize individual self-interest. Here we investigate dynamics using dispenses with payoff maximization and assumes risk perception results from interaction between epidemiology cognitive biases. Methods We consider behaviour-incidence in which individuals perceive actual epidemiological risks as function their opinion vaccination. As result confirmation bias, sceptical (negative opinion) overestimate infection cost while pro-vaccines (positive cost. We considered feedback environment could change opinion, thus way they risks, both most common population. Results For all parameter values investigated, never eradicated For moderately contagious diseases, oscillations emerge process information differently depending on opinion. Conformism does generate but slows down cultural response change. Conclusion Failure vaccine preventable emerges biases maintain heterogeneity how people risks. Thus, assumptions rationality are mandatory for predicting commonly observed coverage. This shows alternative notions rationality, such ecological whereby use simple heuristics, offer promising new avenues modelling behaviour.