Inferring the past to predict the future: climate modelling predictions and phylogeography for the freshwater gastropod Radix balthica (Pulmonata, Basommatophora).

摘要: Understanding the impact of past climatic events on species may facilitate predictions how will respond to future climate change. To this end, we sampled populations common pond snail Radix balthica over entire range (northwestern Europe). Using a recently developed analytical framework that employs ecological niche modelling obtain hypotheses are subsequently tested with statistical phylogeography, inferred dynamics R. time. A Maxent for present-day conditions was performed infer envelope species, and modelled used hindcast climatically suitable at last glacial maximum (LGM) c. 21 000 years ago. Ecological predicted two areas LGM within present range. Phylogeographic model selection COI mitochondrial DNA data set confirmed most likely spread from these disjunct refuges after LGM. The match observed between potential given its requirements phylogeographically refugial clear argument in favour conservatism balthica, thus allowing predict subsequent projection under global change scenario predicts moderate pole-ward shift northern limits, but dramatic loss currently occupied France, western Great Britain southern Germany.