Qualitative-quantitative scenarios as a means to support sustainability-oriented regional planning
作者： P. Döll
DOI: 10.1007/978-94-007-0973-7_3
关键词:
摘要: Scenario analysis facilitates a better understanding of future environmental change and is useful means to support regional planning that geared towards sustainable development. In particular if developed by close cooperation decision-makers scientists, scenarios help understand the consequences today's decisions in quite distant uncertain future. Scenarios describe range plausible futures an integrated manner, considering most important driving forces socio-environmental system interest. Ideally, they combine qualitative quantitative elements, i.e. narratives (storylines) with mathematical modeling. this paper, methodology develop described, considering, particular, issues participation scale. Examples for which explore impact climate on water resources irrigation requirements whole Mediterranean region are provided. Due high uncertainty precipitation changes computed global models, it not possible determine, river basin scale, how different greenhouse gas emission will translate requirements.
springer.com
sci-hub.st 参考文章(19)
Giuseppe Munda, Multicriteria Evaluation in a Fuzzy Environment: Theory and Applications in Ecological Economics ,(1995)
Giuseppe Munda, Multicriteria Evaluation in a Fuzzy Environment Physica-Verlag HD. ,(1995) , 10.1007/978-3-642-49997-5
Joseph Alcamo, Teresa Ribeiro, Scenarios as Tools for International Environmental Assessments ,(2002)
Erich Roeckner, Klaus Arpe, Uwe Schulzweida, Marco A. Giorgetta, Ulrich Schlese, L. Dümenil, Martin Claussen, Lennart Bengtsson, Monika Esch, M. Christoph, The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM-4: Model description and simulation of present-day climate Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie. ,(1996) , 10.17617/2.1781494
William J. Cosgrove, Frank R. Rijsberman, World Water Vision ISBN 185383730X. ,(2000) , 10.4324/9781315071763
Peter Schwartz, The art of the long view ,(1991)
Petra Döll, Stefan Siebert, Global modeling of irrigation water requirements Water Resources Research. ,vol. 38, pp. 8- 1 ,(2002) , 10.1029/2001WR000355
C. Gordon, C. Cooper, C. A. Senior, H. Banks, J. M. Gregory, T. C. Johns, J. F. B. Mitchell, R. A. Wood, The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments Climate Dynamics. ,vol. 16, pp. 147- 168 ,(2000) , 10.1007/S003820050010
Jan Rotmans, Marjolein van Asselt, Chris Anastasi, Sandra Greeuw, Joanne Mellors, Simone Peters, Dale Rothman, Nicole Rijkens, Visions for a sustainable Europe Futures. ,vol. 32, pp. 809- 831 ,(2000) , 10.1016/S0016-3287(00)00033-1
Petra Döll, Impact of Climate Change and Variability on Irrigation Requirements: A Global Perspective Climatic Change. ,vol. 54, pp. 269- 293 ,(2002) , 10.1023/A:1016124032231