Adam A. ScaifeThomas SpangehlDavid R. FeredayUlrich CubaschUlrike Langematz • Hideharu AkiyoshiSlimane BekkiPeter BraesickeNeal ButchartMartyn P. Chipperfield • Andrew GettelmanSteven C. HardimanMartine MichouEugene RozanovTheodore G. Shepherd

摘要: Climate change is expected to increase winter rainfall and flooding in many extratropical regions as evaporation precipitation rates increase, storms become more intense storm tracks move polewards. Here, we show how changes stratospheric circulation could play a significant role future climate the extratropics through an additional shift tropospheric circulation. This alters regional by amount large enough significantly alter pro- jections. The are consistent with winds inducing baroclinic eddy growth rate across depth of troposphere. A mean wind structure equatorward relative models poor resolution allows coupling surface cli- mate. Using Atlantic track example, this can double predicted extreme over Western Central Europe compared other current projections.