Future change in wintertime atmospheric blocking simulated using a 20‐km‐mesh atmospheric global circulation model

摘要: [1] Future change in the frequency of atmospheric blocking is investigated through present-day (1979-2003) and future (2075-2099) simulations using 20-, 60-, 120-, 180-km-mesh general circulation models (AGCMs) under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Reports Emission Scenarios A1B emission scenario, focusing Northern Hemisphere winter (December-February). The results climate reveal that AGCM with highest horizontal resolution required to accurately simulate Euro-Atlantic blocking, whereas lowest good agreement reanalysis data regarding Pacific blocking. While lower-resolution reproduce long-lived they are unable This result suggests maintenance mechanism different from In simulations, both frequencies blockings predicted show a significant decrease, mainly western part each peak frequency, where westerly jet increase strength; no eastern peak. number events decrease for almost all durations, remarkable long-duration events. It possible (>25 days) will disappear altogether future.