Accuracy of climate change predictions using high resolution simulations as surrogates of truth

摘要: [1] How accurate are predictions of climate change from a model which is biased against contemporary observations? If bias can be thought as state-independent linear offset, then the signal derived should not affected substantially by that model's bias. By contrast, if processes cause highly nonlinear, we could expect accuracy to degrade with increasing Since do yet know late 21st Century signal, cannot say at this stage these two paradigms describes best role in studies change. We therefore study question using time-slice projections global run resolutions - resolution typical models and numerical weather prediction – treat high-resolution surrogate truth, for both 20th climate. find magnitude regionally varying partial predictor regional wind precipitation. This relationship particularly apparent 850 mb signal. Our analysis lends some support efforts weight multi-model ensembles according bias, though note optimal weighting appears nonlinear function