Evaluation of present and future North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) regional climate simulations over the southeast United States

摘要: [1] In order to make well-informed decisions in response future climate change, officials and the public require reliable projections at scale of tens kilometers, rather than hundreds kilometers that current atmosphere–ocean general circulation models provide. Recent efforts such as North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) aim address this need. This study has two principal aims: (1) evaluate seasonal performance NARCCAP simulations over southeast United States for both present (1971–2000) (2041–2070) periods (2) assess impact a performance-based weighting scheme on bias uncertainty. Application results substantial reduction magnitude percent area exhibiting significant all seasons temperature precipitation. The is then expanded change. Temperature changes are universally positive outside bounds natural variability entire region seasons. tightens confidence intervals by much 1.6°C. Future precipitation modest, mixed sign, vary season location. Though uncertainty reduced 50%, projected generally not background variability. Thus, under simulations, stress water resources most likely come from increased temperatures mean For energy use, implication ∼3°C increase during peak use summer may place additional strain power grids.