A framework for the probabilistic analysis of meteotsunamis

摘要: A probabilistic technique is developed to assess the hazard from meteotsuna- mis. Meteotsunamis are unusual sea-level events, generated when speed of an atmo- spheric pressure or wind disturbance comparable phase long waves in ocean. general aggregation equation proposed for analysis, based on previous frameworks established both tsunamis and storm surges, incorporating dif- ferent sources source parameters meteotsunamis. Parameterization atmospheric disturbances numerical modeling performed computation maximum meteotsunami wave amplitudes near coast. historical record used establish a continuous analytic distribution each parameter as well overall Poisson rate occurrence. demonstration study presented northeast U.S. which only isolated squall lines derechos considered. For this study, Automated Surface Observing System stations determine 2000 2013. The prob- abilistic equations implemented using Monte Carlo scheme, where synthetic catalog compiled by sampling distributions. entry catalog, ocean computed hydrodynamic model. Aggregation results scheme curve that plots annualized exceedance with respect event amplitude particular location along Results multiple catalogs, resampled parent distributions, yield mean quantile