The Impact of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Agricultural Pests: The Case of the Coffee White Stem Borer (Monochamus leuconotus P.) in Zimbabwe

摘要: The production of agricultural commodities faces increased risk pests, diseases and other stresses due to climate change variability. This study assesses the potential distribution pests under projected climatic scenarios using evidence from African coffee white stem borer (CWB), Monochamus leuconotus (Pascoe) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae), an important pest in Zimbabwe. A species modeling approach utilising Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) Generalized Linear Models (GLM) was applied on current data obtained WorldClim database occurrence (presence absence) collected through on-farm biological surveys Chipinge, Chimanimani, Mutare Mutasa districts Results both BRT GLM indicate that precipitation-related variables are more determining range for CWB than temperature related variables. has extensive habitats all areas with district having largest model average area suitable conditions. Habitat ranges will increase future Chimanimani while it decrease district. highest percentage a 49.1% (3 906 ha) by 2080. predictions gave similar predicted compared high variation habitat concludes significantly Zimbabwe there is need develop adaptation mechanisms.